| schema:description | "内容記述: 1. Forecasting for sustainability: Projecting the shadow of humanity on the environment of the Earth; The why and how of forecasting alternative futures; Is there a tradeoff between economy and the environment?; Economic development paths and their ecological impacts; Out project: Forecasting Kentucky's environmental futures. 2. Process overview and rationale: The policy context: Opportunities and constraints; Task definition; Opportunities and constraints; Identifying key areas of concern; Data scanning; Project modeling elements; Establishing the economy-environment links; Identifying possible alternative development paths. 3. Scanning context and setting priorities: Kentucky - a brief socioeconomic sketch; The state of the environment in Kentucky; The policy context; Setting priorities: The initial issue scanning survey; Summary. 4. Social research for forecasting: Nominal group techniques in scenario building: Scenario forecasting; The nominal group technique; Identification of significant environmental issues; Choosing impact priority from significant issues; Developing scenarios: Social, economic and environmental narratives; Summary of findings. 5. Environmental impact modeling from scenario projections: Forecasting economic conditions and activities; The Kentucky regions analyzed - definitions and utility; Baseline and restructured projections: Imaging a different mix of economic activities; POLESTAR scenarios: Technology, policy and behavior change and the environment. 6. Comparing the effects of economic activity, technologies and practices on environmental impacts: The baseline economy projection: Can past trends continue?; Adjusting for probable and possible change; The environmental consequences of economic restructuring; The range of change: Baseline status quo vs. restructured combined change; Implications of current policy: Sources of challenge, sources of hope; Conclusions. 7. Forecasting for sustainability conclusions, findings and potential: Forecasting for sustainability; Forecasting Kentucky's environmental futures: A summary; Environmental research for the policy process: Context and credibility Issues in measurement and valuation; Prospects: The potential contribution of environmental forecasts....(more)" |